"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce
the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island.,
should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental
companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of
rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was
achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced
similar limits on moped rentals."
The author of this editorial recommends that to reduce accidents involving mopeds and
pedestrians Balmer Island's city council should restrict moped rentals to 30 per day, down from
50, at each of the island's six rental outlets. To support this recommendation the author cites
the fact that last year, when nearby Torseau Island's town council enforced similar measures,
Torseau's rate of moped accidents fell by 50%. For several reasons, this evidence provides
scant support for the author's recommendation.
To begin with, the author assumes that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect the
rate of moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the restrictions are enacted.
However, with a restricted supply of rental mopeds people in Balmer might purchase mopeds
instead. Also, the number of pedestrians might increase in the future; with more pedestrians,
especially tourists, the risk of moped-pedestrian accidents would probably increase. For that
matter, the number of rental outlets might increase to make up for the artificial supply
restriction per outlet--a likely scenario assuming moped rental demand does not decline.
Without considering and ruling out these and other possible changes that might contribute to a
high incidence of moped-pedestrian accidents, the author cannot convince me that the
proposed restrictions will necessarily have the desired effect.
Next, the author fails to consider other possible explanations for the 50% decline in
Torseau's moped accident rate last year. Perhaps last year Torseau experienced unusually fair
weather, during which moped accidents are less likely. Perhaps fewer tourists visited Tot sean
last year than during most years, thereby diminishing the demand for rental mopeds to below
the allowed limits. Perhaps last year some of Torseau's moped rental outlets purchased new
mopeds that are safer to drive. Or perhaps the restrictions were already in effect but were not
enforced until last year. In any event, a decline in Torseau's moped accident rate during only
one year is scarcely sufficient to draw any reliable conclusions about what might have caused
the decline, or about what the accident rate will be in years ahead.
Additionally, in asserting that the same phenomenon that caused a 50% decline in moped
accidents in Torseau would cause a similar decline in Balmer, the author relies on what might
amount to an unfair analogy between Balmer and Torseau. Perhaps Balmer's ability to enforce
moped-rental restrictions does not meet Torseau's ability; if not, then the mere enactment of
similar restrictions in Balmer is no guarantee of a similar result. Or perhaps the demand for
mopeds in Torseau is always greater than in Balmer. Specifically, if fewer than all available
mopeds are currently rented per day from the average Balmer outlet, while in Torseau every
available moped is rented each day, then the proposed restriction is likely to have less impact
on the accident rate in Balmer than in Torseau.
Finally, the author provides no evidence that the same restrictions that served to reduce the
incidence of all "moped accidents" by 50% would also serve to reduce the incidence of
accidents involving "mopeds and pedestrians" by 50%. Lacking such evidence, it is entirely
possible that the number of moped accidents not involving pedestrians decreased by a greater
percentage, while the number of moped-pedestrian accidents decreased by a smaller
percentage, or even increased. Since the author has not accounted for these possibilities, the
editorial's recommendation cannot be taken seriously.
In conclusion, the recommendation is not well supported. To convince me that the proposed
restriction would achieve the desired outcome, the author would have to assure me that no
changes serving to increase Balmer's moped-pedestrian accident rate will occur in the
foreseeable future. The author must also provide dear evidence that last year's decline in
moped accidents in Torseau was attributable primarily to its moped rental restrictions rather
than to one or more other factors. In order to better evaluate the recommendation, I would
need more information comparing the supply of and demand for moped rentals on the two
islands. I would also need to know the rate of mopedpedestrian accidents in Torseau both prior
to and after the restrictions were enforced in Torseau.
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